With the president hitting back over the weekend, announcing a new temporary global tariff of 10%, then 15%, its clear that the White House is persisting with its policy of using trade levies to gain leverage over other countries.
So, as ING economists warn:
Announcements since the Supreme Court’s ruling strongly confirm that Trump has no intention of removing his “most beautiful word” from the English dictionary.
Uncertainty is back, and given the latest muscle-flexing by European leaders, the risk of escalation is now higher than it was a year ago.
The market reaction has been to sell the US dollar – it has fallen by 0.4% against a basket of other currencies today, adding to losses on Friday after the supreme court declared tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to be illegal.
US stock market futures are lower too, indicating we’ll see losses on Wall Street, while bitcoin has also weakened.
Last night, US Trade Representative JamiesonGreer insisted that deals made with other countries are still intact, and should be honoured.
Greer told CBS’s Face the Nation:
“We want them to understand these deals are going to be good deals.
“We’re going to stand by them. We expect our partners to stand by them.”
Greer also pledged that the new 15% global tariff was distinct from the bilateral agreements struck in the last nine months with about 20 countries.
Although, as education secretary, Bridget Phillipson admitted on Sunday, UK businesses faced “uncertainty” after the latest developments.
The agenda
9am GMT: German IFO investor confidence survey
Noon GMT: Mexico’s Q4 2025 GDP report
1.30pm GMT: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index
3pm GMT: US factory orders for December
Key events
Donald Trump’s new 15% flat-rate tariff is a boost for China, India and Brazil, according to analysis from Global Trade Alert, a trade monitoring body.
GlobalTradeAlert have calculated that the shift away from the tariff regime before the supreme court ruling produces “clear winners and losers” among the top 20 exporters to the US.
Countries that faced steep IEEPA surcharges see large tariff reductions: Brazil (-13.6 pp), China (-7.1 pp), and India (-5.6 pp) benefit most, since the flat S122 surcharge replaces country-specific IEEPA rates that were far higher.
[S122 refers to section 122 of the US Trade Act of 1974, the legislation Trump is using for his new 15% tariffs].
The US Customs and Border Protection agency said it will halt collections of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act at 12:01 a.m. EST (0501 GMT) on Tuesday, after the supreme court declared them illegal on Friday.
With the president hitting back over the weekend, announcing a new temporary global tariff of 10%, then 15%, its clear that the White House is persisting with its policy of using trade levies to gain leverage over other countries.
So, as ING economists warn:
Announcements since the Supreme Court’s ruling strongly confirm that Trump has no intention of removing his “most beautiful word” from the English dictionary.
Uncertainty is back, and given the latest muscle-flexing by European leaders, the risk of escalation is now higher than it was a year ago.
The market reaction has been to sell the US dollar – it has fallen by 0.4% against a basket of other currencies today, adding to losses on Friday after the supreme court declared tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to be illegal.
US stock market futures are lower too, indicating we’ll see losses on Wall Street, while bitcoin has also weakened.
Last night, US Trade Representative JamiesonGreer insisted that deals made with other countries are still intact, and should be honoured.
Greer told CBS’s Face the Nation:
“We want them to understand these deals are going to be good deals.
“We’re going to stand by them. We expect our partners to stand by them.”
Greer also pledged that the new 15% global tariff was distinct from the bilateral agreements struck in the last nine months with about 20 countries.
